{"b":15,"claim":"Sierra will announce a named enterprise customer running a proactive (not chat-initiated) agent workflow in production by Nov 15, 2026.","deadline":"2026-11-15","label":"S1","p":35,"published_at":"2026-09-29T21:46:12Z","rule":"WIN: by Nov 15, 2026, Sierra or the customer publicly announces (official blog, press release, or major-outlet report) a NAMED enterprise customer running a proactive agent workflow in production, with the workflow described - the agent initiates contact or action rather than only responding. LOSE: no such public announcement by end of Nov 15.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":null,"claim":"At least one model lab will publicly treat Vercel AI Gateway as a launch channel (not just an endpoint) by Nov 13, 2026.","deadline":"2026-11-13","label":"S2","p":null,"published_at":"2026-09-29T21:46:12Z","rule":"A model lab's own announcement naming AI Gateway as a launch or first-access channel.","status":"withdrawn","withdrawal_reason":"Published with five same-direction Vercel posts already in evidence and a falsifier that could not bite (\"None by deadline\"): near-certain resolution does not build a track record. Withdrawn editorially; kept on the record.","withdrawn_at":"2026-09-29T21:57:39Z"}
{"b":10,"claim":"At least one independently named financial-services customer will report a production workflow completed using the Decagon-Plaid integration by Oct 29, 2026.","deadline":"2026-10-29","label":"S3","p":20,"published_at":"2026-09-29T21:46:12Z","rule":"A customer or independent report names the customer, specifies the integration, and documents a completed authenticated financial-service workflow by the deadline.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":35,"claim":"No tracked AI application-layer company (Sierra, Decagon, Harvey, Anysphere, ElevenLabs, Perplexity, Mercor, LangChain, Vercel, Supabase) will announce a new funding round of $500M or more during October 2026.","deadline":"2026-11-01","label":"S4","p":45,"published_at":"2026-09-29T21:58:19Z","rule":"LOSE the moment any tracked company (Sierra, Decagon, Harvey, Anysphere, ElevenLabs, Perplexity, Mercor, LangChain, Vercel, Supabase) has a $500M+ funding round reported as CLOSED during October 2026. \"Announce\" = official company or investor statement, or a major-outlet report (Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, FT, CNBC, TechCrunch, The Information) of a signed/closed round; rumors, talks and unsigned term sheets do not count. WIN: October 31 ends with no such announcement.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":40,"claim":"At Interrupt London on October 13, 2026, LangChain announces a new named product line beyond LangSmith and LangGraph.","deadline":"2026-10-15","label":"S5","p":30,"published_at":"2026-09-29T23:39:53Z","rule":"WIN: LangChain's Interrupt London keynote or langchain.com introduces a NEW NAMED PRODUCT (not a version update of LangGraph, LangSmith, or an existing product) on Oct 13, 2026, confirmed via official LangChain channels by Oct 15. LOSE: the event passes with no new named product line.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":30,"claim":"At Vercel Ship 26 on October 15, 2026, Vercel's agentic-infrastructure announcement reaches general availability with published pricing - not a preview, beta, or waitlist.","deadline":"2026-10-17","label":"S6","p":40,"published_at":"2026-09-29T23:39:53Z","rule":"WIN: by Oct 17, 2026, vercel.com shows the agentic-infrastructure product announced at Ship 26 as generally available with public pricing. LOSE: the announcement is preview/beta/waitlist-only, or no agentic-infrastructure product is announced.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":10,"claim":"By October 13, 2026, Perplexity announces a closed funding round at a valuation of $30B or more.","deadline":"2026-10-13","label":"S7","p":25,"published_at":"2026-09-29T23:39:53Z","rule":"WIN: official Perplexity or investor statement, or major-outlet report (Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, FT, CNBC, TechCrunch, The Information), of a CLOSED round at $30B+ valuation dated Sep 30 - Oct 13, 2026. LOSE: no such announcement by end of Oct 13. Rumors, talks and unsigned term sheets do not count.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":20,"claim":"Decagon will announce at least one more named enterprise customer or partnership of comparable scale by 2027-03-29.","deadline":"2027-03-29","label":"S8","p":35,"published_at":"2026-09-30T03:19:48Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet announcement of a new named enterprise customer/partner on or before 2027-03-29.","status":"withdrawn","withdrawal_reason":"Registered with a resolution rule looser than the claim: the claim said \"of comparable scale\", the rule accepted any named logo. Withdrawn editorially in the Sept 30 integrity pass; re-registered with a tightened rule as S19. Kept on the record.","withdrawn_at":"2026-09-30T07:23:27Z"}
{"b":20,"claim":"ElevenLabs will announce a new funding round or a formal IPO step (filing, banker mandate, or a stated listing timeline) by 2027-09-30.","deadline":"2027-09-30","label":"S9","p":30,"published_at":"2026-09-30T03:19:48Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet announcement of a new round or formal IPO step on or before 2027-09-30.","status":"withdrawn","withdrawal_reason":"Registered with an ambiguous condition (\"stated listing timeline\") that press talk of IPO interest could satisfy without any formal step. Withdrawn editorially in the Sept 30 integrity pass; re-registered with a tightened rule as S20. Kept on the record.","withdrawn_at":"2026-09-30T07:23:27Z"}
{"b":20,"claim":"Sierra will announce at least one more named enterprise customer or partnership of comparable scale by 2027-03-30.","deadline":"2027-03-30","label":"S10","p":35,"published_at":"2026-09-30T03:19:48Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet announcement of a new named enterprise customer/partner on or before 2027-03-30.","status":"withdrawn","withdrawal_reason":"Registered with a resolution rule looser than the claim: the claim said \"of comparable scale\", the rule accepted any named logo. Withdrawn editorially in the Sept 30 integrity pass; re-registered with a tightened rule as S21. Kept on the record.","withdrawn_at":"2026-09-30T07:23:27Z"}
{"b":20,"claim":"Harvey will announce at least one more named enterprise customer or partnership of comparable scale by 2027-03-30.","deadline":"2027-03-30","label":"S11","p":35,"published_at":"2026-09-30T04:51:20Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet announcement of a new named enterprise customer/partner on or before 2027-03-30.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":15,"claim":"The labor-practice allegations now on record for Mercor (contractor monitoring, reported Sep 2026) produce a disclosed material consequence - settlement, ruling, regulatory action, remediation disclosure, or a named-customer exit - by 2027-06-30.","deadline":"2027-06-30","label":"S12","p":30,"published_at":"2026-09-30T04:51:20Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet report of a material consequence tied to the recorded adverse event on or before 2027-06-30.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":50,"claim":"At least one YC Fall 2026 AI company announces a seed round of $15M or more within 90 days of the F26 demo day.","deadline":"2027-03-31","label":"S17","p":55,"published_at":"2026-09-30T07:06:28Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE when a company listed in YC's Fall 2026 batch directory announces a seed round of $15M or more (company blog or named outlet) within 90 days of the F26 demo day; FALSE if the window closes with no qualifying round.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":30,"claim":"SOTO publishes a Wire story on a YC Fall 2026 company at least 7 days before that company's first TechCrunch coverage.","deadline":"2027-03-31","label":"S18","p":45,"published_at":"2026-09-30T07:06:28Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE when a SOTO Wire event on an F26 company predates the first TechCrunch article naming that company by 7 or more days (publication dates compared); FALSE if no F26 company meets the bar by 2027-03-31.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":20,"claim":"Decagon will announce at least one more named enterprise customer or partnership of comparable scale to Plaid - a public company or a category-leading financial platform - by 2027-03-29.","deadline":"2027-03-29","label":"S19","p":35,"published_at":"2026-09-30T07:23:27Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet announcement of a new named enterprise customer or partner of comparable scale to Plaid (a public company or category-leading platform) on or before 2027-03-29. A logo of clearly smaller scale does not count.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":20,"claim":"ElevenLabs will announce a new funding round or a formal IPO step - a filing or a disclosed banker mandate - by 2027-09-30.","deadline":"2027-09-30","label":"S20","p":30,"published_at":"2026-09-30T07:23:27Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet announcement of a new funding round, an IPO filing, or a disclosed banker mandate on or before 2027-09-30. Press talk of IPO interest alone does not count.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":20,"claim":"Sierra will announce at least one more named enterprise customer or partnership of comparable scale to Liberty Global - a public company or national-carrier-scale platform - by 2027-03-30.","deadline":"2027-03-30","label":"S21","p":35,"published_at":"2026-09-30T07:23:27Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet announcement of a new named enterprise customer or partner of comparable scale to Liberty Global (a public company or national-carrier-scale platform) on or before 2027-03-30. A logo of clearly smaller scale does not count.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":20,"claim":"Mistral will announce a sovereign-AI partnership with a G7 government outside France - a named national-government contract or partnership with Mistral as the model provider - by 2027-03-30.","deadline":"2027-03-30","label":"S22","p":40,"published_at":"2026-09-30T12:22:40Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet announcement, on or before 2027-03-30, of a sovereign-AI contract or partnership between Mistral and the national government of a G7 member other than France (United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada). The government must be the counterparty; corporate partnerships, research hubs, and minister endorsements do not count.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}
{"b":10,"claim":"The DaVoice wake-word trade-secret suit against Perplexity (on record Sep 29) produces a disclosed material consequence - settlement, ruling, regulatory action, remediation disclosure, or a named-customer exit - by 2027-06-30.","deadline":"2027-06-30","label":"S23","p":15,"published_at":"2026-09-30T13:56:02Z","rule":"Resolves TRUE on a primary-source or named-outlet report of a material consequence tied to the recorded DaVoice suit on or before 2027-06-30. Resolves FALSE otherwise.","status":"registered","withdrawal_reason":null,"withdrawn_at":null}